Reinforcement learning algorithms have been widely used for decision-making tasks in various domains. However, the performance of these algorithms can be impacted by high variance and instability, particularly in environments with noise or sparse rewards. In this paper, we propose a framework to perform statistical online inference for a sample-averaged Q-learning approach. We adapt the functional central limit theorem (FCLT) for the modified algorithm under some general conditions and then construct confidence intervals for the Q-values via random scaling. We conduct experiments to perform inference on both the modified approach and its traditional counterpart, Q-learning using random scaling and report their coverage rates and confidence interval widths on two problems: a grid world problem as a simple toy example and a dynamic resource-matching problem as a real-world example for comparison between the two solution approaches.

A large body of recent work focuses on methods for extracting low-dimensional latent structure from multi-neuron spike train data. Most such methods employ either linear latent dynamics or linear mappings from latent space to log spike rates. Here we propose a doubly nonlinear latent variable model that can identify low-dimensional structure underlying apparently high-dimensional spike train data. We introduce the Poisson Gaussian-Process Latent Variable Model (P-GPLVM), which consists of Poisson spiking observations and two underlying Gaussian processes--one governing a temporal latent variable and another governing a set of nonlinear tuning curves. The use of nonlinear tuning curves enables discovery of low-dimensional latent structure even when spike responses exhibit high linear dimensionality (e.g., as found in hippocampal place cell codes). To learn the model from data, we introduce the decoupled Laplace approximation, a fast approximate inference method that allows us to efficiently optimize the latent path while marginalizing over tuning curves. We show that this method outperforms previous Laplace-approximation-based inference methods in both the speed of convergence and accuracy. We apply the model to spike trains recorded from hippocampal place cells and show that it compares favorably to a variety of previous methods for latent structure discovery, including variational auto-encoder (VAE) based methods that parametrize the nonlinear mapping from latent space to spike rates with a deep neural network.

Contract theory studies the setting where a principal seeks to design a contract for rewarding an agent on the basis of the uncertain outcomes caused by the agent's private actions [

Membership inference arises in these contexts as a potential auditing method for detecting unauthorized data usage.

We prove its consistency and show that the asymptotic variance ofitssolution canattaintheequality oftheefficiencybound undermild regularity conditions.

Policy inference plays an essential role in the contextual bandit problem. In this paper, we use empirical likelihood to develop a Bayesian inference method for the joint analysis of multiple contextual bandit policies in finite sample regimes. The proposed inference method is robust to small sample sizes and is able to provide accurate uncertainty measurements for policy value evaluation. In addition, it allows for flexible inferences on policy comparison with full uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed inference method using Monte Carlo simulations and its application to an adolescent body mass index data set.

Neural datasets often contain measurements of neural activity across multiple trials of a repeated stimulus or behavior. An important problem in the analysis ofsuch datasets istocharacterizesystematic aspects ofneural activity that carry information about the repeated stimulus or behavior of interest, which can be considered "signal", and to separate them from the trial-to-trial fluctuations in activity that are not time-locked to the stimulus, which for purposes of such analyses can be considered "noise". Gaussian Process factor models provide a powerful tool for identifying shared structure in high-dimensional neural data.

Further,the presence of multiple modes can affect the interpretability of kernel hyperparameters.

Neural approaches for combinatorial optimization (CO) equip a learning mechanism to discover powerful heuristics for solving complex real-world problems. While neural approaches capable of high-quality solutions in a single shot are emerging, state-of-the-art approaches are often unable to take full advantage of the solving time available to them. In contrast, hand-crafted heuristics perform highly effective search well and exploit the computation time given to them, but contain heuristics that are difficult to adapt to a dataset being solved.